Sports With put up positions drawn and Preakness Stakes odds now on the making a wager board, the inevitable annual ask remains: Will a Triple Crown be gained this year?
It’s all on Mystik Dan’s hearty horse shoulders within the period in-between. And the Kentucky Derby winner isn’t the favourite Saturday at Pimlico in Baltimore.
Mystik Dan is the second change within the encourage of Muth, who didn’t bustle within the Kentucky Derby.
“Mystik Dan is a perfect horse, coming off a dynamite procure. But Muth is larger-rested,” stated Paul Zilm, a horse racing oddsmaker who’s been spherical the thoroughbred trade for Twenty years.
Zilm helps ruin down odds to procure the Preakness Stakes, as horse racing gears up for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Beating Bob Baffert
Half of the complicated calculus for Mystik Dan jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and trainer Kenny McPeek is coping with off against the Bob Baffert-knowledgeable Muth, with jockey Juan Hernandez within the saddle.
Baffert is under suspension from Churchill Downs and, therefore, couldn’t self-discipline a Derby horse. But he’s obtained the 5/2 favourite Muth energetic to roll at Pimlico. And Muth is effortlessly unique.
He closing ran within the March 30 Arkansas Derby, winning the 1 1/8-mile lumber. Mystik Dan used to be in that lumber, as properly, taking third within the encourage of fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Staunch Steel. Baffert has since been biding his time with Muth.
“Mystik Dan is coming off a indispensable lumber, a laborious lumber,” Zilm stated of the three-horse picture terminate at the Kentucky Derby, in which the colt edged Sierra Leone and Eternally Younger. “He expended rather a lot of energy, and he’ll possess correct two weeks’ rest.
“Muth is a horse who’s if fact be told correct and didn’t prefer to head through that grind. It’s been six weeks since Muth’s closing lumber. The freshness of Muth could well prevail.”
Zilm spent five years at Circa Sports, leaving in March after serving to craft Kentucky Derby odds. He pointed out that Mystik Dan has bustle on two weeks’ rest once, winning a 5½-furlong lumber — which is about three-quarters of a mile — on Nov. 12, then taking fifth in a 1-mile tournament Nov. 25.
“It’s a small sample size. But within the one opportunity to bustle encourage so rapid, Mystik Dan didn’t lumber completely,” Zilm stated.
On The Plus Facet
That stated, the truth remains that Mystik Dan gained the Kentucky Derby at 16/1 odds, topping 19 other horses within the major jewel of the Triple Crown. Because the 5/2 second change in Preakness odds, he’s correct on Muth’s hooves.
Mystik Dan drew the No. 5 put up on Monday, and Muth is dependable subsequent to him, breaking from the fourth gate. And it’s simplest a nine-horse self-discipline.
“You’ve obtained the Derby winner and two other horses from the Derby and a bunch of recent shooters,” Zilm stated. “Oftentimes, if the Derby winner is a standout horse, the Preakness is the more straightforward of the closing two legs to procure. Within the Belmont, you’ll possess horses that ran the Derby, then obtained a fleshy five weeks of rest, ganging up on you.”
Zilm has a high idea of every Mystik Dan and Muth, though he believes the finest horse is atop the oddsboard to procure the Preakness.
“If Muth would’ve been within the Derby, he’d possess potentially been the second change, within the encourage of Fierceness,” Zilm stated. “Bob Baffert, fancy him or no longer, is conscious of be taught the approach to get horses energetic.
“Muth and Mystik Dan are clearly the 2 favorites, and so that they’re correct subsequent to every other. So, with a chunk of luck, those two get a clear ruin and a correct lumber.”
Zilm sees the possibilities between the 2 tightening between now and Saturday’s 6:50 p.m. ET put up.
“I wouldn’t be a great deal surprised if Muth is 9/5 and Mystik Dan is 2/1,” he stated.
Others Worth Looking at
At 6/1, the co-third change in Preakness odds is Catching Freedom, who took fourth within the Kentucky Derby. Because it turns out, Catching Freedom drew the third put up, so he’ll ruin from correct internal Muth and Mystik Dan.
“He’ a horse which that you can even’t slash mark. If [trainer] Brad Cox is picking to bustle him encourage, then he must always serene be coaching correct,” Zilm stated.
Then there’s a brand fresh shooter in Tuscan Gold. The colt gained a 1-mile tournament at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 31, then ran third to winner Catching Freedom and Honor Marie within the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby on March 23.
“Tuscan Gold is fancy Muth. He didn’t bustle within the Kentucky Derby, so he’s a novel horse,” Zilm stated. “His lunge figures to construct him in originate of the identical caliber because the upper horses within the Preakness. And trainer Chad Brown has performed properly with horses that didn’t bustle within the Kentucky Derby.
“He’s a horse that could well also give a boost to and in all likelihood procure at a pleasant mark. I if fact be told possess viewed about a folks I admire divulge they fancy Tuscan Gold. Whereas you happen to could well also lock him in at larger odds early within the week, I absolutely wouldn’t be against that.”
Tuscan Gold is the 8/1 fifth change to procure the Preakness.
What About Bob’s Diversified Horse
Then there’s Imagination, one more Baffert-knowledgeable thoroughbred. Which capacity that of this fact, Imagination also couldn’t bustle the Kentucky Derby, because of Baffert’s suspension. But the colt joins Catching Freedom because the 6/1 co-third change in odds to procure the Preakness.
“Imagination will potentially entice some consideration, as properly,” Zilm stated. “I don’t believe he’s as correct as Muth, however which that you can even’t ignore him. He’s rested, as properly.”
Imagination gained the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes on March 3 and ran second to Stronghold within the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby on April 6.
“I don’t believe Baffert shows up in Baltimore correct to be within the lumber. I’m optimistic he’s obtained a feeling every his horses can form properly. Imagination is no longer correct going along for the lumber,” Zilm stated.
Patrick Everson is a sports making a wager analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a illustrious journalist within the national sports making a wager notify. He’s primarily primarily based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golf in 110-level heat. Be conscious him on Twitter: @ PatrickE_Vegas .
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